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As President Joe Biden nears his final days in office, he is beginning to grasp the reality that his years of service to the Democratic Party may carry little weight once he leaves the Oval Office.
In these final moments, Biden is likely grappling with a mix of frustration and a sense of betrayal as his approval ratings plummet to figures that echo those of former President Jimmy Carter. Recently, Biden honored Carter, a one-term Democrat who faced a disillusioned electorate that ultimately favored an outsider candidate. Adding to his troubles, severe wildfires in California have forced him to cancel a planned trip to Italy and the Vatican. On Monday evening, he will give the first of two speeches intended to bolster his legacy, though it’s doubtful they will rekindle enthusiasm among his party’s base as he shifts into a more elder statesman role.
The numbers tell a telling story: only 37% of Americans approve of Biden’s performance, a modest improvement from Carter’s exit rating by about five points, but a significant decline from the 53% approval he enjoyed at the start of his presidency, according to FiveThirtyEight. An Associated Press-NORC survey reveals that Biden’s approval has dipped to 39%, with only 72% of Democrats backing him—down from an impressive 97% when he first took office. Moreover, over half of Democrats—55%—report that they feel no better off now compared to when Biden began his presidency, highlighting a growing sentiment that he is not effectively leading a party that feels marginalized in the halls of power, mirroring his own sense of isolation.
Since the midterm elections, a quiet yet widespread dissatisfaction has emerged regarding Biden’s decisions, particularly in the wake of the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong showing in the 2022 midterms, which briefly fueled hopes for maintaining the White House in 2024. Biden’s determination to seek another four years now appears questionable, although he remains steadfast. In a recent interview, he confidently claimed he would have triumphed over Trump in a rematch.
“It may be presumptuous to say this, but yes,” Biden stated in an exclusive exit interview with USA Today.
His unwavering optimism has drained the remaining goodwill among Democrats. His choice to pardon his son, Hunter Biden, has complicated the party’s narrative on equality before the law, especially in light of Trump’s legal issues. His decisions to award the nation’s highest civilian honors to individuals such as George Soros and Hillary Clinton have sparked considerable backlash from conservative factions. Meanwhile, a bipartisan initiative to honor the late Governor George Romney received mixed responses, despite Biden’s more favorable reception for his efforts to clear federal death row.
As Monday draws near, Biden will give his first farewell address at the State Department, where he will highlight what his administration sees as successes in foreign policy. However, critics within the Democratic Party are quick to note the setbacks, such as the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, the persistent Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a more assertive China. Given Biden’s extensive background with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and his previous roles as Vice President and President, this legacy-oriented speech seems appropriate, especially for a country that may not be deeply invested in international issues.
Following that, he plans to deliver a more traditional farewell from the Oval Office on Wednesday before heading back to Delaware the following Monday.
Discontent with outgoing Presidents is hardly a new phenomenon. Even within Democratic ranks, fatigue was palpable by the time Obama delivered his farewell address in Chicago, the city where his political journey began. George W. Bush’s final months were overshadowed by crises, including a financial collapse and an auto industry bailout, prompting him to focus on legacy-building trips abroad rather than attending the GOP convention. Bill Clinton exited office as a popular figure, yet his Vice President, Al Gore, was careful to distance himself as he sought to maintain Democratic control of the White House.
To be candid, Biden’s situation appears more challenging than that of his predecessors, according to polling data. Public sentiment has soured against him, with some Democrats attributing blame to him for potentially paving the way for another Trump administration. Even his most loyal supporters seem reluctant to reflect positively on his legacy. While White House aides assert that Biden’s legislative achievements are on par with those of previous Presidents, a legacy is often shaped more by public perception than by tangible accomplishments. This has been evident in past elections, as seen with Trump’s third campaign, Obama’s successful messaging during the 2008 financial crisis, and Bush’s promises of moral integrity following Clinton’s scandals.
However, Biden should not lose sight of the fact that history shows former Presidents often witness a shift in their reputations after leaving office.
In this regard—more than any well-crafted speech or favorable narrative produced by his team—Biden should take comfort. While current polling reflects a historic low, there remains significant potential for a comeback, often occurring relatively quickly. Gallup frequently conducts follow-up polls with former Presidents, revealing notable improvements in initial assessments: Ronald Reagan saw a 15-point increase, Carter experienced a 12-point rise, and George H.W. Bush enjoyed a 10-point boost in approval ratings. Perhaps, after some time away from the limelight, the nation may extend Biden a similar chance for redemption—though it remains a fact that he may never attain the position he has aspired to for most of his life. Snap judgments—just like elections—can sometimes overlook the broader context.
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