O
n March 13, 2013, when white smoke billowed from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, it marked the conclusion of the voting process by the 115 cardinal electors. Many onlookers outside were likely surprised to learn that Jorge Mario Bergoglio had been chosen as the 266th Pope of the Catholic Church.
At 76 years old, Bergoglio was often considered too advanced in age to feature prominently on media lists of potential papal candidates, referred to as papabili. It was customary for bishops and cardinals to resign at 75, and the cardinal electors—who typically select from their ranks—have a maximum age limit of 80 for candidates.
Hailing from Buenos Aires, Argentina, Bergoglio made history as the first Pope from Latin America and the first non-European Pope in over 1,200 years. He was also the first Jesuit Pope, representing a religious order committed to helping marginalized communities. After his election, he chose the name Francis in tribute to Saint Francis of Assisi, celebrated for his humility and devotion to the poor. Compared to his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, Francis was widely seen as more progressive in his outlook.
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After the passing of Francis at the age of 88, around 135 eligible cardinal electors will gather to select his successor. Remarkably, 108 of these electors—approximately 80%—were appointed by Francis during his papacy. This has led to speculation that Francis may have intentionally shaped the future direction of the Church. Nevertheless, experts caution that predicting the outcome will be as challenging as foreseeing Francis’ own election.
“Historically, it can be quite difficult for a Pope to influence the election of his successor,” says Miles Pattenden, a historian at Oxford University with a focus on the Catholic Church. Cardinals tend to be independent thinkers, and even those appointed by Francis may have distinct perspectives.
“Assuming that cardinals vote strictly along ideological lines is an oversimplification, as if they belong to political factions,” Pattenden explains. “This is not how the Vatican operates.”
He also recalls an Italian proverb: “After a corpulent Pope comes a slender one.”
“This implies that cardinals often reflect on the past Pope’s weaknesses and actively seek someone who can address those concerns.” The key question for the cardinals will be whether they desire change or prefer to maintain continuity.
According to Pattenden, this upcoming conclave is expected to differ from previous ones. For the first time, the number of eligible cardinal electors has exceeded the traditional limit of 120, although it remains uncertain whether this limit will be strictly adhered to. Furthermore, the current assembly of cardinals showcases unprecedented geographical diversity.
In 2013, 51% of cardinal electors were European. Today, that figure has decreased to about 39%, with around 18% from the Asia-Pacific region, 18% from Latin America and the Caribbean, 12% from Sub-Saharan Africa, 10% from North America, and 3% from the Middle East and North Africa.
Francis played a vital role in this transformation. Among the 108 cardinals he appointed, 38% were from Europe, while 19% each were from Latin America and the Asia-Pacific, 12% from Sub-Saharan Africa, 7% from North America, and 4% from the Middle East and North Africa.
Notably, Francis appointed cardinals from 25 countries that had never had one before. His selections included Chibly Langlois, the first cardinal from Haiti, Charles Maung Bo, the first cardinal from Myanmar, and Hyderabad Anthony Poola, who represents India’s Dalit caste.
Many current papabili lists highlight candidates who could represent historic firsts for the papacy from Asia, such as Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, or from Africa, such as Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson.
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Francis emphasized inclusivity within the Vatican, as noted by Pattenden. In his cardinal appointments, he sought representation from around the world, particularly from smaller Catholic communities that had previously been overlooked. He believed it was unjust that only well-established, affluent Catholic communities consistently received representation. However, from an ideological standpoint, “Francis likely could not have predicted how these new cardinals would think; their colleagues may not know either—the cardinals may not be fully aware of their own views.”
Carlos Eire, a Yale University professor with expertise in history and religious studies, believes it is likely that those appointed by Francis will lean towards more progressive ideologies. He notes that Francis did not appoint many conservative bishops to the College of Cardinals. While geographical diversity was prioritized, theological diversity was not given equal weight. For example, he appointed American Robert McElroy in 2022, known for his advocacy on immigration and environmental issues, as well as inclusion for LGBTQ+ Catholics, while reportedly overlooking more conservative archbishops. Eire states, “In terms of religious matters, it is highly probable that the new electors will move away from traditionalism.”
“Choosing a Pope shares similarities with other electoral processes. Voters have their preferences,” Eire adds. “The only difference between this conclave and bodies like the House of Representatives or the European Parliament is that the cardinals seek guidance from the Holy Spirit during their discussions.”
However, Pattenden suggests that the decision may rely more on charisma, competence, and piety rather than strictly on ideological divides.
Given the diverse backgrounds of the College of Cardinals, this conclave could be particularly unpredictable. “They may not have the same level of familiarity with one another as previous groups of cardinals, which is likely to affect the dynamics,” Pattenden notes. “When it comes time to cast a vote, it may be more complicated if you have only just met the candidate rather than having a long-standing relationship.”
If familiarity turns out to be an advantage, Pattenden suggests that Tagle from the Philippines, known for his charisma, or Pietro Parolin, the highest-ranking cardinal present at the conclave, could emerge as frontrunners.
If neither Tagle, Parolin, nor any other candidate manages to secure the necessary two-thirds majority, it is likely that the cardinals will expand their search for candidates beyond their initial preferences, according to Pattenden.
“The process remains cloaked in secrecy… The Church is extremely cautious about maintaining confidentiality regarding the proceedings,” Pattenden explains, noting that any information that does leak out is often unverified.
“This has significant implications for the theological understanding of the election: the belief is that the Holy Spirit guides the cardinals in their decision-making. However, increased transparency regarding discussions and voting behaviors could undermine the credibility of this belief.”
