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Beyond the shadow of Donald Trump, one person stands out as a potential game-changer in the ongoing economic crisis: House Speaker Mike Johnson. However, he would prefer if his name didn’t come up too often in this context.
With the President igniting a global crisis not seen in generations, Speaker Johnson is diligently working to shield his fellow House Republicans from the turmoil Trump has created. The chaos surrounding Trump poses a risk of leaving deep-rooted marks on GOP lawmakers and could have dire consequences for retirees. Even some of Trump’s staunch allies, like Senators Rand Paul and Chuck Grassley, have begun to express their worries about the repercussions of these events.
Congressman Don Bacon from Omaha is advocating for a bill in the House designed to counter Trump’s unilateral emergency tariffs. However, his proposal currently lacks support from his GOP colleagues, and frustration is quietly growing among lawmakers. Most remain reluctant to confront the President at this time. A similar effort in the Senate has garnered bipartisan backing and might attract more Republican support if they believed it wouldn’t be buried by Johnson.
If Johnson were to endorse a bill that reasserts Congress’s authority over tariffs, the political landscape on Capitol Hill could change swiftly. Both chambers would likely find substantial majorities for such legislation, possibly enough to override Trump’s anticipated veto. However, taking such a bold step could jeopardize Johnson’s position, especially given that he recently took on the Speakership with Trump’s endorsement.
As for Trump, he seems unfazed by the political upheaval unfolding around him.
“We are going to secure fair and advantageous deals with everyone. If they don’t meet us halfway, they will be excluded from participating in the U.S.,” he declared on Monday.
The chaos that Trump is steering the economy into is undoubtedly avoidable. If House members were willing to uphold their principles, this crisis could be resolved quickly. Unfortunately, they are not.
Access to global markets is crucial for numerous economies in Republican districts—think of the manufacturers of tractors, soybeans, and medical devices. Making these products less competitive as exports is a damaging first step in a sequence that also includes escalating prices for imports that were once more affordable from countries like China, Singapore, and India.
While consumers have not yet felt the pinch at the checkout, investors are sensing trouble on the horizon and reacting negatively. During a recent Oval Office meeting, Trump labeled market players as foolish cowards who did not share his optimism that a prosperous era for America is imminent, provided they remain patient. “Tariffs will make this country incredibly wealthy,” he proclaimed as the Israeli Prime Minister listened quietly.
Although the White House asserts that all is well and even suggested increasing tariffs on China to 130%, Wall Street is beginning to openly resist an administration that once seemed a partner. Even a proposal from the European Union to eliminate tariffs on some U.S. goods was brushed off by Trump, who remarked, “The E.U. has been tough on us over the years.”
The rapidly rising costs threaten to inflate prices on nearly every item in American households. Some officials in Trump’s administration contend that this is merely the beginning of negotiations, while the President maintains that the new tariff strategy is both irreversible and a necessary response.
Meanwhile, the House appears to be in a passive state, watching the tariff crisis escalate while acting as if they have no options available.
The political implications are both evident and concerning. The House’s electoral map has already shown signs of vulnerability. The Senate’s landscape is only slightly more favorable. Republican positions in state races are precarious. If you’re not noticing the trend, there are numerous F-based terms to describe the future of Republican power, and the situation is not improving as markets struggle.
The developments on Monday were met with somber expressions around the capital. Goldman Sachs has raised the likelihood of a recession to 45% in a note to its clients. Lobbyists are informing lawmakers about various issues in their districts, ranging from seed oil to auto parts, and from airplanes to wheat thrashers. If all politics are local, then all tariffs are pitfalls.
For the time being, Johnson continues to align with whatever Trump decides. However, if the Speaker were to show any signs of hesitation, it’s likely his colleagues would temporarily set aside their MAGA hats to reverse Trump’s tariffs. Yet any deviation from Trump’s preferred course could prompt House Republicans to initiate a no-confidence vote against Johnson, who has thus far managed to maintain control over a notoriously unruly caucus.
This dynamic has created a sense of indifference among some Republicans on Capitol Hill, particularly among senior aides.
“Everything is a mess. That was true last week, it’s true this week, and it will be true next week. Everyone needs to take a breath,” a senior aide in House Republican Leadership texted me early Monday. “You can panic all you want, but President Trump remains the party leader. Speaker Johnson holds the gavel. Leader [John] Thune is in charge of the Senate. And the Supreme Court is on our side. As the kids say: STFU.”
This dual narrative of Rome burning versus a steady hand is currently shaping the conservative movement in Congress. While no one is particularly fond of Trump’s dominance over the party, it has become a necessary alliance since 2015. However, this relationship is being tested as communication lines on Capitol Hill are overloaded with concerns from constituents regarding their retirement savings and the future of local businesses.
This brings us back to Johnson, an unintentional Speaker whose majority is fragile, and whose loyalty to Trump is at best uncertain. On Monday, his fellow members were feeling the impacts of a Trump maneuver that has cost the economy trillions in just a week. The decline in the markets since Trump took office has been among the steepest in recent history, and it cannot be dismissed as a mere blip.
In conclusion, while the tariff crisis originates from Trump’s actions, it is Johnson and the Republicans who are perpetuating it.
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